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Alabama

Model Score Rank
Adj EM33.116
Elo1774.195
RPI0.6753
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.567
Rank: 1 of 16 in SEC, 15 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 3 of 16 in SEC, 141 of 364 in D1
15th

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.156
Rank: 10 of 16 in SEC, 161 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 4 of 16 in SEC, 131 of 364 in D1
161st

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.319
Rank: 8 of 16 in SEC, 121 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 15 of 16 in SEC, 323 of 364 in D1
121st

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.399
Rank: 6 of 16 in SEC, 30 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 16 of 16 in SEC, 338 of 364 in D1
30th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.480
Rank: 6 of 16 in SEC, 52 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 9 of 16 in SEC, 255 of 364 in D1
52nd

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.127
Rank: 16 of 16 in SEC, 349 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 4 of 16 in SEC, 93 of 364 in D1
349th

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.734
Rank: 5 of 16 in SEC, 137 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 4 of 16 in SEC, 134 of 364 in D1
137th

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.340
Rank: 8 of 16 in SEC, 201 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 6 of 16 in SEC, 159 of 364 in D1
201st

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 126.08
4th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 40.0%
50th

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 82.7%
239th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 48.4%
20th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 53.5%
329th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 26.3%
172nd

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 44.1%
338th

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 60.1%
4th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 46.5%
36th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 13.6%
40th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 38.6%
48th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 35.0%
121st

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 39.9%
30th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.3%
29th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 32.4%
24th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 73.2%
139th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 55.6%
88th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.1%
263rd

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 5.3%
296th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 26.4%
36th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 15.6%
161st

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 31.9%
121st

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 77.53
1st

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.17
11th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.57
15th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 92.97
18th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 37.0%
187th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 86.9%
325th

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 42.8%
92nd

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 65.5%
326th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.9%
288th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 56.9%
348th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 49.5%
117th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 34.5%
39th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.2%
22nd

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 30.0%
82nd

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 30.2%
19th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 34.0%
201st

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 20.4%
222nd

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.6%
238th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 72.0%
197th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 44.1%
22nd

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 7.8%
320th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 5.8%
78th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.0%
170th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 12.7%
349th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 73.4%
137th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 78.56
1st

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.04
152nd

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
52nd
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