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LSU

Model Score Rank
Adj EM11.5175
Elo1490.19193
RPI0.506159
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.509
Rank: 14 of 16 in SEC, 202 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 16 of 16 in SEC, 342 of 364 in D1
202nd

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.171
Rank: 15 of 16 in SEC, 273 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 6 of 16 in SEC, 152 of 364 in D1
273rd

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.267
Rank: 12 of 16 in SEC, 278 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 16 of 16 in SEC, 353 of 364 in D1
278th

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.333
Rank: 15 of 16 in SEC, 188 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 13 of 16 in SEC, 224 of 364 in D1
188th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.485
Rank: 8 of 16 in SEC, 66 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 14 of 16 in SEC, 347 of 364 in D1
66th

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.155
Rank: 11 of 16 in SEC, 213 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 16 in SEC, 92 of 364 in D1
213th

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.692
Rank: 15 of 16 in SEC, 322 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 13 of 16 in SEC, 313 of 364 in D1
322nd

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.301
Rank: 3 of 16 in SEC, 95 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 5 of 16 in SEC, 153 of 364 in D1
95th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 109.00
103rd

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 36.5%
238th

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 82.3%
253rd

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 44.3%
205th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 56.4%
288th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.6%
210th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 46.3%
303rd

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 55.1%
61st

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 43.6%
77th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 11.0%
193rd

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 36.0%
92nd

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 30.0%
338th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 33.3%
188th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 19.0%
217th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 26.6%
211th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 71.6%
189th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 49.0%
265th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 11.1%
345th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.6%
188th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.4%
192nd

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 17.1%
273rd

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 26.7%
278th

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 71.58
90th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.03
241st

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.51
202nd

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 97.49
55th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 37.2%
206th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 87.2%
332nd

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 42.7%
87th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 64.2%
286th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.1%
251st

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 56.0%
339th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 48.8%
83rd

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 35.8%
79th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.1%
85th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 31.2%
135th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 31.8%
76th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 30.1%
95th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 18.2%
106th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.8%
125th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 71.1%
146th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 46.4%
52nd

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.8%
158th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 6.5%
34th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.6%
136th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 15.5%
213th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 69.2%
322nd

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 71.84
71st

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.03
133rd

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
66th
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