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Belmont

Model Score Rank
Adj EM2.41126
Elo1608.9269
RPI0.54485
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.550
Rank: 5 of 12 in MVC, 44 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 10 of 12 in MVC, 311 of 364 in D1
44th

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.151
Rank: 3 of 12 in MVC, 119 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 11 of 12 in MVC, 325 of 364 in D1
119th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.255
Rank: 10 of 12 in MVC, 301 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 2 of 12 in MVC, 106 of 364 in D1
301st

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.263
Rank: 12 of 12 in MVC, 343 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 9 of 12 in MVC, 275 of 364 in D1
343rd

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.535
Rank: 9 of 12 in MVC, 307 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 2 of 12 in MVC, 5 of 364 in D1
307th

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.166
Rank: 3 of 12 in MVC, 135 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 1 of 12 in MVC, 70 of 364 in D1
135th

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.726
Rank: 12 of 12 in MVC, 188 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 2 of 12 in MVC, 97 of 364 in D1
188th

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.279
Rank: 1 of 12 in MVC, 50 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 11 of 12 in MVC, 295 of 364 in D1
50th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 110.51
89th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 40.0%
52nd

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 86.1%
84th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 46.4%
85th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 55.5%
304th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.2%
243rd

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 47.7%
277th

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 52.9%
127th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 44.5%
61st

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 14.8%
16th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 38.4%
51st

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 38.3%
14th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 26.3%
343rd

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 16.1%
335th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 22.4%
340th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 69.7%
255th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 60.7%
25th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.9%
247th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.8%
228th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 22.0%
291st

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 15.1%
119th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 25.5%
301st

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 71.60
89th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.11
69th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.55
44th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 108.10
213th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 38.9%
301st

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 84.7%
238th

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 46.0%
277th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 56.9%
55th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 26.3%
206th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 48.1%
81st

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 54.8%
317th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 43.1%
310th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 12.7%
315th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 36.6%
318th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 34.2%
223rd

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 27.9%
50th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 16.8%
41st

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.2%
41st

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 71.2%
150th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 54.9%
266th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.7%
168th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.4%
206th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.9%
43rd

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 16.6%
135th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 72.6%
188th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 71.50
88th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.07
263rd

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
307th
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