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Saint Louis

Model Score Rank
Adj EM5.59105
Elo1543.83125
RPI0.54582
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.567
Rank: 1 of 15 in A10, 14 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 1 of 15 in A10, 39 of 364 in D1
14th

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.177
Rank: 14 of 15 in A10, 299 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 8 of 15 in A10, 221 of 364 in D1
299th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.243
Rank: 14 of 15 in A10, 323 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 13 of 15 in A10, 271 of 364 in D1
323rd

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.322
Rank: 10 of 15 in A10, 212 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 9 of 15 in A10, 253 of 364 in D1
212th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.488
Rank: 4 of 15 in A10, 75 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 15 of 15 in A10, 340 of 364 in D1
75th

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.136
Rank: 15 of 15 in A10, 332 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 9 of 15 in A10, 198 of 364 in D1
332nd

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.738
Rank: 6 of 15 in A10, 116 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 5 of 15 in A10, 166 of 364 in D1
116th

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.251
Rank: 2 of 15 in A10, 16 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 1 of 15 in A10, 47 of 364 in D1
16th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 109.40
98th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 38.2%
127th

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 80.1%
327th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 47.8%
37th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 49.9%
358th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.0%
301st

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 39.8%
361st

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 60.4%
2nd

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 50.1%
7th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 14.2%
28th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 40.2%
25th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 35.1%
113th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 32.2%
212th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 16.8%
315th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.4%
301st

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 69.9%
253rd

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 56.8%
66th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.3%
282nd

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.6%
189th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.6%
304th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 17.7%
299th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 24.3%
323rd

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 69.33
213th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.07
137th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.57
14th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 103.82
124th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 37.8%
236th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 89.3%
351st

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 42.3%
75th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 60.9%
173rd

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 26.1%
197th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 54.2%
294th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 48.1%
60th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 39.1%
192nd

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 11.7%
260th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 35.0%
286th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 32.5%
115th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 25.1%
16th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 15.4%
16th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.8%
21st

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 72.2%
213th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 47.8%
79th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 8.9%
229th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.3%
217th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.2%
29th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 13.6%
332nd

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 73.8%
116th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 69.92
168th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.03
130th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
75th
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