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Alcorn State

Model Score Rank
Adj EM-17.90332
Elo1432.66264
RPI0.428305
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.464
Rank: 11 of 12 in SWAC, 346 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 5 of 12 in SWAC, 106 of 364 in D1
346th

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.179
Rank: 6 of 12 in SWAC, 310 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 12 in SWAC, 50 of 364 in D1
310th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.345
Rank: 3 of 12 in SWAC, 62 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 8 of 12 in SWAC, 177 of 364 in D1
62nd

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.314
Rank: 10 of 12 in SWAC, 244 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 11 of 12 in SWAC, 317 of 364 in D1
244th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.528
Rank: 8 of 12 in SWAC, 274 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 10 of 12 in SWAC, 190 of 364 in D1
274th

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.172
Rank: 6 of 12 in SWAC, 101 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 12 in SWAC, 96 of 364 in D1
101st

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.693
Rank: 7 of 12 in SWAC, 315 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 1 of 12 in SWAC, 1 of 364 in D1
315th

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.322
Rank: 3 of 12 in SWAC, 149 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 6 of 12 in SWAC, 79 of 364 in D1
149th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 95.19
336th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 35.1%
303rd

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 85.1%
117th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 41.7%
329th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 70.6%
12th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.1%
118th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 60.2%
11th

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 45.5%
350th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 29.4%
353rd

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 7.9%
350th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.9%
350th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 30.4%
335th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 31.4%
244th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 18.7%
235th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 26.0%
235th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 71.5%
194th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 44.2%
342nd

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.6%
216th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 6.0%
345th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 22.4%
258th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 17.9%
310th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 34.5%
62nd

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 67.39
297th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 0.97
340th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.46
346th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 113.08
308th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 37.9%
247th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 83.9%
197th

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 45.1%
229th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 55.1%
28th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.1%
132nd

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 46.1%
46th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 54.8%
318th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 44.9%
337th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 12.8%
327th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 37.8%
335th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 33.2%
152nd

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 32.2%
149th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 19.0%
143rd

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 26.4%
148th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 71.7%
172nd

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 59.0%
333rd

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.9%
148th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 3.9%
266th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.9%
221st

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 17.2%
101st

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 69.3%
315th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 67.06
303rd

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.08
272nd

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
274th
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