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Siena

Model Score Rank
Adj EM-9.31255
Elo1393.97305
RPI0.473226
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.498
Rank: 7 of 13 in MAAC, 268 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 8 of 13 in MAAC, 192 of 364 in D1
268th

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.159
Rank: 5 of 13 in MAAC, 187 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 1 of 13 in MAAC, 5 of 364 in D1
187th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.273
Rank: 9 of 13 in MAAC, 251 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 7 of 13 in MAAC, 94 of 364 in D1
251st

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.383
Rank: 1 of 13 in MAAC, 50 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 5 of 13 in MAAC, 173 of 364 in D1
50th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.517
Rank: 7 of 13 in MAAC, 223 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 11 of 13 in MAAC, 231 of 364 in D1
223rd

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.169
Rank: 4 of 13 in MAAC, 112 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 6 of 13 in MAAC, 156 of 364 in D1
112th

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.725
Rank: 7 of 13 in MAAC, 195 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 11 of 13 in MAAC, 232 of 364 in D1
195th

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.318
Rank: 10 of 13 in MAAC, 135 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 6 of 13 in MAAC, 99 of 364 in D1
135th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 100.95
241st

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 35.3%
301st

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 82.1%
256th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 43.2%
271st

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 60.2%
203rd

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.6%
272nd

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 49.4%
230th

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 49.8%
262nd

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 39.8%
162nd

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.7%
204th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 32.7%
179th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 32.9%
234th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 38.3%
50th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 22.5%
53rd

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 30.5%
56th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 73.9%
111th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 48.3%
279th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.7%
234th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.6%
205th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.2%
18th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 15.9%
187th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 27.3%
251st

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 69.61
200th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.04
222nd

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.50
268th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 110.26
256th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 37.9%
245th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 82.8%
142nd

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 45.8%
271st

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 65.9%
334th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.2%
305th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 54.4%
301st

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 51.9%
219th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 34.1%
31st

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.7%
61st

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.4%
38th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 34.0%
212th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 31.8%
135th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 19.1%
151st

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.5%
116th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 75.1%
335th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 49.2%
117th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.8%
165th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 7.2%
16th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.4%
117th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 16.9%
112th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 72.5%
195th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 68.96
210th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.05
185th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
223rd
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