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NC A&T

Model Score Rank
Adj EM-17.79331
Elo1309.00344
RPI0.397339
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.463
Rank: 14 of 14 in CAA, 349 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 13 of 14 in CAA, 260 of 364 in D1
349th

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.144
Rank: 2 of 14 in CAA, 57 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 14 of 14 in CAA, 364 of 364 in D1
57th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.268
Rank: 9 of 14 in CAA, 272 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 14 in CAA, 69 of 364 in D1
272nd

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.317
Rank: 7 of 14 in CAA, 236 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 10 of 14 in CAA, 200 of 364 in D1
236th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.514
Rank: 9 of 14 in CAA, 204 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 7 of 14 in CAA, 143 of 364 in D1
204th

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.142
Rank: 12 of 14 in CAA, 314 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 9 of 14 in CAA, 250 of 364 in D1
314th

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.701
Rank: 12 of 14 in CAA, 293 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 1 of 14 in CAA, 22 of 364 in D1
293rd

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.303
Rank: 5 of 14 in CAA, 98 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 4 of 14 in CAA, 57 of 364 in D1
98th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 95.35
333rd

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 34.8%
316th

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 85.4%
103rd

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 40.8%
349th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 63.4%
117th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.4%
234th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 54.2%
94th

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 47.0%
333rd

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 36.6%
248th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.4%
302nd

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 31.2%
222nd

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 29.8%
347th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 31.7%
236th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 18.3%
257th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 26.6%
215th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 69.4%
265th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 45.5%
322nd

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 8.1%
58th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 5.0%
259th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 22.4%
260th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 14.4%
57th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 26.8%
272nd

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 70.87
130th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 0.97
335th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.46
349th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 113.14
309th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 39.3%
311th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 87.5%
337th

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 44.9%
217th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 61.2%
188th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.0%
292nd

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 53.7%
280th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 51.8%
214th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 38.8%
177th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 11.3%
222nd

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 33.8%
236th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 32.4%
106th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 30.3%
98th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 19.7%
182nd

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 26.1%
136th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 75.3%
339th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 57.3%
303rd

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 8.6%
266th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.4%
205th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.3%
30th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 14.2%
314th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 70.1%
293rd

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 70.09
158th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.10
309th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
204th
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