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Incarnate Word

Model Score Rank
Adj EM-6.56227
Elo1395.78302
RPI0.458256
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.533
Rank: 3 of 12 in SLC, 86 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 5 of 12 in SLC, 177 of 364 in D1
86th

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.156
Rank: 3 of 12 in SLC, 157 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 4 of 12 in SLC, 90 of 364 in D1
157th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.396
Rank: 1 of 12 in SLC, 5 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 7 of 12 in SLC, 294 of 364 in D1
5th

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.298
Rank: 9 of 12 in SLC, 292 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 1 of 12 in SLC, 9 of 364 in D1
292nd

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.522
Rank: 9 of 12 in SLC, 243 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 2 of 12 in SLC, 37 of 364 in D1
243rd

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.165
Rank: 8 of 12 in SLC, 141 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 12 in SLC, 71 of 364 in D1
141st

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.707
Rank: 7 of 12 in SLC, 274 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 12 of 12 in SLC, 338 of 364 in D1
274th

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.367
Rank: 9 of 12 in SLC, 262 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 12 of 12 in SLC, 327 of 364 in D1
262nd

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 104.93
174th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 40.7%
25th

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 87.4%
39th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 46.6%
75th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 64.1%
98th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 29.1%
40th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 55.9%
52nd

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 51.8%
172nd

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 35.9%
267th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 11.6%
142nd

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 31.5%
218th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 36.9%
37th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 29.8%
292nd

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 17.3%
294th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.3%
273rd

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 68.1%
296th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 44.9%
330th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 8.9%
141st

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.4%
144th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 20.5%
341st

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 15.6%
157th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 39.6%
5th

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 66.73
321st

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.10
75th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.53
86th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 111.49
281st

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 38.2%
267th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 82.3%
122nd

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 46.4%
294th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 68.3%
357th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.9%
335th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 56.5%
344th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 51.0%
173rd

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 31.7%
8th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.3%
28th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.8%
8th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 34.7%
247th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 36.7%
262nd

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 20.9%
245th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 29.6%
272nd

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 70.1%
97th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 48.1%
94th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.7%
170th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 5.3%
105th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.2%
240th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 16.5%
141st

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 70.7%
274th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 67.06
302nd

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.06
243rd

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
243rd
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