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Morgan State

Model Score Rank
Adj EM-19.29340
Elo1381.61316
RPI0.401336
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.507
Rank: 5 of 8 in MEAC, 216 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 7 of 8 in MEAC, 280 of 364 in D1
216th

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.177
Rank: 4 of 8 in MEAC, 300 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 4 of 8 in MEAC, 245 of 364 in D1
300th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.346
Rank: 4 of 8 in MEAC, 58 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 4 of 8 in MEAC, 61 of 364 in D1
58th

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.363
Rank: 6 of 8 in MEAC, 95 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 8 in MEAC, 105 of 364 in D1
95th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.522
Rank: 3 of 8 in MEAC, 246 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 1 of 8 in MEAC, 8 of 364 in D1
246th

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.167
Rank: 6 of 8 in MEAC, 129 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 4 of 8 in MEAC, 82 of 364 in D1
129th

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.649
Rank: 7 of 8 in MEAC, 360 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 8 in MEAC, 163 of 364 in D1
360th

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.389
Rank: 3 of 8 in MEAC, 306 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 1 of 8 in MEAC, 30 of 364 in D1
306th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 98.11
295th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 38.7%
96th

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 82.7%
237th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 47.1%
53rd

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 78.3%
1st

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 32.7%
2nd

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 64.7%
2nd

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 50.9%
213th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 21.7%
364th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 6.0%
364th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 18.0%
364th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 33.2%
222nd

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 36.3%
95th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.4%
92nd

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 29.5%
84th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 71.8%
184th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 43.4%
350th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.6%
218th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 5.4%
311th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.5%
190th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 17.7%
300th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 34.6%
58th

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 74.82
10th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.05
200th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.51
216th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 117.40
351st

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 38.5%
278th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 84.4%
222nd

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 45.8%
270th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 65.0%
311th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.8%
282nd

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 55.0%
318th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 51.0%
175th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 35.0%
54th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.7%
151st

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 29.4%
55th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 36.9%
335th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 38.9%
306th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 22.1%
306th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 32.0%
325th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 69.6%
73rd

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 53.4%
230th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 8.7%
263rd

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 5.9%
70th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.7%
207th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 16.7%
129th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 64.9%
360th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 74.72
7th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.10
311th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
246th
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