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Arkansas State

Model Score Rank
Adj EM7.7395
Elo1595.0879
RPI0.55669
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.498
Rank: 10 of 14 in SBC, 266 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 4 of 14 in SBC, 116 of 364 in D1
266th

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.135
Rank: 2 of 14 in SBC, 29 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 4 of 14 in SBC, 68 of 364 in D1
29th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.327
Rank: 5 of 14 in SBC, 92 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 7 of 14 in SBC, 105 of 364 in D1
92nd

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.337
Rank: 9 of 14 in SBC, 179 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 14 of 14 in SBC, 311 of 364 in D1
179th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.461
Rank: 2 of 14 in SBC, 11 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 11 of 14 in SBC, 235 of 364 in D1
11th

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.160
Rank: 5 of 14 in SBC, 182 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 12 of 14 in SBC, 311 of 364 in D1
182nd

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.725
Rank: 5 of 14 in SBC, 194 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 14 in SBC, 131 of 364 in D1
194th

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.375
Rank: 9 of 14 in SBC, 279 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 10 of 14 in SBC, 224 of 364 in D1
279th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 109.30
99th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 38.1%
133rd

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 89.5%
10th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 42.5%
302nd

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 55.1%
308th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.0%
256th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 49.0%
242nd

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 51.1%
205th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 44.9%
57th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 13.1%
56th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 40.5%
20th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 32.8%
237th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 33.7%
179th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.0%
114th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.9%
110th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 71.7%
188th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 51.5%
196th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 8.6%
105th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 5.1%
275th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.1%
217th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 13.5%
29th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 32.7%
92nd

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 71.98
72nd

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.10
78th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.50
266th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 101.57
93rd

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 33.9%
38th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 83.4%
171st

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 40.8%
23rd

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 65.6%
328th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.2%
137th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 54.8%
315th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 46.7%
27th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 34.4%
37th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 8.7%
18th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.6%
41st

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 30.3%
23rd

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 37.5%
279th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.5%
275th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 30.6%
301st

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 70.7%
121st

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 48.0%
88th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.3%
121st

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 6.1%
58th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.5%
256th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 16.0%
182nd

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 72.5%
194th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 71.85
69th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 0.98
39th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
11th
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