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UM Kansas City

Model Score Rank
Adj EM-4.95206
Elo1396.10300
RPI0.427308
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.507
Rank: 8 of 9 in SUM, 217 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 6 of 9 in SUM, 286 of 364 in D1
217th

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.162
Rank: 7 of 9 in SUM, 207 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 7 of 9 in SUM, 284 of 364 in D1
207th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.354
Rank: 3 of 9 in SUM, 42 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 9 in SUM, 103 of 364 in D1
42nd

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.330
Rank: 8 of 9 in SUM, 197 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 9 of 9 in SUM, 294 of 364 in D1
197th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.495
Rank: 1 of 9 in SUM, 103 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 5 of 9 in SUM, 96 of 364 in D1
103rd

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.172
Rank: 2 of 9 in SUM, 97 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 5 of 9 in SUM, 229 of 364 in D1
97th

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.745
Rank: 3 of 9 in SUM, 92 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 6 of 9 in SUM, 227 of 364 in D1
92nd

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.353
Rank: 4 of 9 in SUM, 225 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 1 of 9 in SUM, 61 of 364 in D1
225th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 99.74
258th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 37.1%
201st

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 86.2%
76th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 43.1%
276th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 55.6%
298th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.9%
305th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 47.9%
269th

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 49.6%
267th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 44.4%
67th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 13.2%
53rd

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 38.4%
53rd

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 34.4%
162nd

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 33.0%
197th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.0%
118th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.6%
176th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 77.7%
20th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 49.3%
258th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 8.9%
147th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 3.6%
27th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.8%
108th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 16.2%
207th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 35.4%
42nd

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 66.67
322nd

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.08
116th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.51
217th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 104.69
150th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 35.0%
71st

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 80.8%
63rd

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 43.2%
110th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 58.6%
95th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.8%
120th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 47.4%
63rd

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 52.2%
236th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 41.4%
270th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.2%
100th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 33.3%
213th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 30.0%
14th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 35.3%
225th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 20.0%
206th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.1%
212th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 70.2%
104th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 48.0%
86th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.7%
90th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.9%
155th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.4%
252nd

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 17.2%
97th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 74.5%
92nd

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 67.05
305th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.00
74th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
103rd
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