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Harvard

Model Score Rank
Adj EM-9.38256
Elo1488.13200
RPI0.487194
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.510
Rank: 7 of 8 in IVY, 199 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 8 in IVY, 111 of 364 in D1
199th

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.166
Rank: 8 of 8 in IVY, 238 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 4 of 8 in IVY, 74 of 364 in D1
238th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.219
Rank: 8 of 8 in IVY, 347 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 2 of 8 in IVY, 235 of 364 in D1
347th

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.254
Rank: 7 of 8 in IVY, 351 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 7 of 8 in IVY, 336 of 364 in D1
351st

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.526
Rank: 5 of 8 in IVY, 267 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 3 of 8 in IVY, 121 of 364 in D1
267th

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.166
Rank: 1 of 8 in IVY, 136 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 1 of 8 in IVY, 21 of 364 in D1
136th

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.719
Rank: 8 of 8 in IVY, 225 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 5 of 8 in IVY, 60 of 364 in D1
225th

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.249
Rank: 2 of 8 in IVY, 15 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 6 of 8 in IVY, 161 of 364 in D1
15th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 99.12
278th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 36.9%
219th

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 83.4%
202nd

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 44.5%
189th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 60.2%
202nd

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 26.2%
178th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 50.2%
206th

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 52.6%
141st

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 39.8%
163rd

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.7%
214th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 33.2%
162nd

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 32.7%
240th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 25.4%
351st

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 15.7%
339th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 20.3%
358th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 76.0%
52nd

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 54.3%
114th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.1%
271st

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.8%
239th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 20.3%
345th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 16.6%
238th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 21.9%
347th

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 68.29
255th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.00
306th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.51
199th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 108.50
225th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 39.7%
324th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 86.2%
301st

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 46.4%
288th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 62.9%
251st

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 29.1%
339th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 54.6%
307th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 54.1%
304th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 37.1%
114th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.6%
142nd

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 31.6%
148th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 32.5%
109th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 24.9%
15th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 16.0%
25th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.1%
14th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 75.0%
333rd

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 50.9%
161st

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.9%
80th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.3%
220th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.1%
27th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 16.6%
136th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 71.9%
225th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 68.25
252nd

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.06
229th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
267th
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