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Portland State

Model Score Rank
Adj EM-4.29203
Elo1486.40202
RPI0.471230
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.520
Rank: 5 of 10 in BSC, 133 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 8 of 10 in BSC, 294 of 364 in D1
133rd

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.171
Rank: 8 of 10 in BSC, 270 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 5 of 10 in BSC, 157 of 364 in D1
270th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.387
Rank: 2 of 10 in BSC, 11 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 7 of 10 in BSC, 304 of 364 in D1
11th

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.332
Rank: 6 of 10 in BSC, 191 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 6 of 10 in BSC, 229 of 364 in D1
191st

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.501
Rank: 2 of 10 in BSC, 128 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 2 of 10 in BSC, 60 of 364 in D1
128th

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.182
Rank: 1 of 10 in BSC, 61 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 7 of 10 in BSC, 184 of 364 in D1
61st

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.713
Rank: 8 of 10 in BSC, 255 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 6 of 10 in BSC, 108 of 364 in D1
255th

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.354
Rank: 5 of 10 in BSC, 227 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 7 of 10 in BSC, 228 of 364 in D1
227th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 99.24
273rd

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 39.8%
58th

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 84.7%
137th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 46.9%
59th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 68.4%
25th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 31.1%
12th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 57.8%
30th

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 53.9%
98th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 31.6%
340th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 8.7%
333rd

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 26.9%
332nd

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 32.8%
235th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 33.2%
191st

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 17.2%
298th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.3%
186th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 62.1%
363rd

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 50.5%
223rd

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 8.5%
90th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.2%
101st

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.6%
180th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 17.1%
270th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 38.7%
11th

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 71.31
104th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.05
188th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.52
133rd

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 103.54
120th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 35.5%
94th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 81.2%
77th

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 43.8%
152nd

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 60.6%
165th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.4%
152nd

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 49.4%
126th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 51.8%
210th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 39.4%
200th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.1%
82nd

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 31.8%
157th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 31.5%
65th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 35.4%
227th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 20.5%
231st

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.0%
209th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 72.2%
212th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 53.0%
219th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.5%
104th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 6.8%
24th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.5%
254th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 18.2%
61st

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 71.3%
255th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 69.84
175th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.02
100th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
128th
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