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Auburn

Model Score Rank
Adj EM38.033
Elo1799.674
RPI0.691
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.552
Rank: 4 of 16 in SEC, 40 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 15 of 16 in SEC, 323 of 364 in D1
40th

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.129
Rank: 2 of 16 in SEC, 13 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 14 of 16 in SEC, 294 of 364 in D1
13th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.328
Rank: 5 of 16 in SEC, 90 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 8 of 16 in SEC, 168 of 364 in D1
90th

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.343
Rank: 13 of 16 in SEC, 154 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 10 of 16 in SEC, 135 of 364 in D1
154th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.462
Rank: 3 of 16 in SEC, 13 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 6 of 16 in SEC, 234 of 364 in D1
13th

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.157
Rank: 9 of 16 in SEC, 196 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 2 of 16 in SEC, 50 of 364 in D1
196th

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.734
Rank: 6 of 16 in SEC, 138 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 5 of 16 in SEC, 179 of 364 in D1
138th

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.393
Rank: 14 of 16 in SEC, 312 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 7 of 16 in SEC, 163 of 364 in D1
312th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 127.17
2nd

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 41.7%
7th

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 87.8%
29th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 47.8%
36th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 59.1%
229th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 29.0%
42nd

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 52.0%
149th

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 56.5%
29th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 40.9%
136th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 12.8%
68th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 35.8%
94th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 35.6%
85th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 34.3%
154th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.5%
86th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 29.6%
82nd

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 72.2%
171st

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 54.8%
109th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 8.7%
122nd

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.0%
77th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.2%
85th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 12.9%
13th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 32.8%
90th

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 70.33
159th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.18
6th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.55
40th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 89.13
5th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 33.4%
23rd

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 81.9%
104th

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 40.8%
24th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 64.6%
300th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.7%
108th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 53.0%
254th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 46.8%
28th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 35.4%
65th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 8.6%
15th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.9%
47th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 30.7%
29th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 39.3%
312th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.0%
329th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 31.5%
320th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 72.7%
235th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 40.4%
7th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.7%
172nd

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 8.4%
2nd

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 26.2%
290th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 15.7%
196th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 73.4%
138th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 70.68
124th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 0.98
47th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
13th
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