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Navy

Model Score Rank
Adj EM-11.44278
Elo1448.57243
RPI0.448274
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.490
Rank: 10 of 10 in PAT, 294 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 9 of 10 in PAT, 151 of 364 in D1
294th

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.151
Rank: 3 of 10 in PAT, 120 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 10 in PAT, 180 of 364 in D1
120th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.316
Rank: 2 of 10 in PAT, 128 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 4 of 10 in PAT, 184 of 364 in D1
128th

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.347
Rank: 2 of 10 in PAT, 140 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 1 of 10 in PAT, 2 of 364 in D1
140th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.527
Rank: 7 of 10 in PAT, 269 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 10 of 10 in PAT, 292 of 364 in D1
269th

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.164
Rank: 3 of 10 in PAT, 143 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 1 of 10 in PAT, 16 of 364 in D1
143rd

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.750
Rank: 4 of 10 in PAT, 74 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 10 of 10 in PAT, 256 of 364 in D1
74th

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.342
Rank: 8 of 10 in PAT, 204 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 4 of 10 in PAT, 175 of 364 in D1
204th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 100.03
254th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 36.4%
251st

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 85.8%
93rd

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 42.6%
301st

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 62.7%
140th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.5%
216th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 53.8%
106th

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 47.5%
324th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 37.3%
225th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.8%
199th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 32.0%
200th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 34.7%
141st

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 34.7%
140th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.1%
110th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.8%
117th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 72.4%
164th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 54.0%
121st

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 8.2%
65th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.8%
231st

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.9%
52nd

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 15.1%
120th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 31.6%
128th

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 67.79
282nd

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.05
207th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.49
294th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 111.47
279th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 37.1%
192nd

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 81.8%
103rd

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 45.5%
248th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 59.0%
110th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.3%
144th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 48.2%
85th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 52.8%
259th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 41.0%
255th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 11.8%
265th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 33.7%
228th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 35.7%
300th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 34.2%
204th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 19.3%
152nd

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.3%
178th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 69.5%
62nd

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 49.8%
126th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.4%
188th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 3.9%
277th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.3%
185th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 16.4%
143rd

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 75.0%
74th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 67.75
280th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.05
201st

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
269th
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