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FAU

Model Score Rank
Adj EM4.12114
Elo1595.5277
RPI0.529108
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.536
Rank: 2 of 13 in AAC, 78 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 4 of 13 in AAC, 162 of 364 in D1
78th

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.156
Rank: 11 of 13 in AAC, 155 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 9 of 13 in AAC, 185 of 364 in D1
155th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.299
Rank: 7 of 13 in AAC, 169 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 13 in AAC, 100 of 364 in D1
169th

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.340
Rank: 11 of 13 in AAC, 168 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 13 in AAC, 51 of 364 in D1
168th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.503
Rank: 8 of 13 in AAC, 151 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 9 of 13 in AAC, 185 of 364 in D1
151st

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.144
Rank: 7 of 13 in AAC, 292 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 12 of 13 in AAC, 333 of 364 in D1
292nd

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.717
Rank: 7 of 13 in AAC, 241 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 2 of 13 in AAC, 48 of 364 in D1
241st

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.336
Rank: 6 of 13 in AAC, 187 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 8 of 13 in AAC, 319 of 364 in D1
187th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 110.06
93rd

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 38.8%
90th

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 84.1%
169th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 46.4%
84th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 59.4%
221st

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 26.8%
131st

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 49.8%
217th

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 54.0%
96th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 40.6%
144th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 12.0%
111th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 34.3%
129th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 34.9%
126th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 34.0%
168th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 19.1%
212th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.5%
181st

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 69.3%
267th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 56.6%
70th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.0%
260th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.2%
104th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.1%
212th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 15.6%
155th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 29.9%
169th

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 72.25
59th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.09
104th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.54
78th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 105.94
180th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 37.2%
207th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 85.4%
277th

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 43.6%
136th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 63.7%
272nd

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.9%
185th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 54.9%
317th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 47.2%
37th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 36.3%
93rd

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 11.3%
225th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 30.5%
107th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 37.2%
344th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 33.6%
187th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 20.9%
250th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.3%
221st

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 73.6%
277th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 51.8%
185th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 8.2%
300th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 6.1%
57th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.1%
176th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 14.4%
292nd

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 71.7%
241st

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 71.84
70th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.07
248th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
151st
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