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SIUE

Model Score Rank
Adj EM-8.13246
Elo1509.94168
RPI0.497175
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.495
Rank: 6 of 11 in OVC, 278 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 10 of 11 in OVC, 301 of 364 in D1
278th

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.154
Rank: 2 of 11 in OVC, 145 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 11 of 11 in OVC, 350 of 364 in D1
145th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.346
Rank: 3 of 11 in OVC, 61 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 7 of 11 in OVC, 254 of 364 in D1
61st

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.338
Rank: 6 of 11 in OVC, 175 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 2 of 11 in OVC, 37 of 364 in D1
175th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.474
Rank: 3 of 11 in OVC, 33 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 3 of 11 in OVC, 49 of 364 in D1
33rd

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.155
Rank: 8 of 11 in OVC, 220 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 11 of 11 in OVC, 339 of 364 in D1
220th

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.730
Rank: 2 of 11 in OVC, 164 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 9 of 11 in OVC, 306 of 364 in D1
164th

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.335
Rank: 3 of 11 in OVC, 183 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 2 of 11 in OVC, 37 of 364 in D1
183rd

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 98.10
296th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 36.9%
216th

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 85.5%
102nd

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 43.2%
270th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 62.9%
134th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 26.3%
173rd

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 53.9%
103rd

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 49.3%
281st

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 37.1%
231st

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.6%
224th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 31.6%
213th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 33.5%
205th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 33.8%
175th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 18.6%
239th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.7%
172nd

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 65.1%
348th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 52.8%
150th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 8.9%
145th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.0%
79th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 22.2%
267th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 15.4%
145th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 34.6%
61st

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 69.71
194th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.03
240th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.49
278th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 106.24
184th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 34.6%
56th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 84.2%
210th

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 41.1%
29th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 61.4%
198th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.9%
67th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 51.7%
210th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 46.7%
26th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 38.6%
167th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.7%
160th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 32.5%
183rd

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 32.1%
92nd

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 33.5%
183rd

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 19.5%
166th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.6%
191st

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 70.9%
131st

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 47.4%
71st

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 8.9%
231st

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 6.0%
66th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.3%
187th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 15.5%
220th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 73.0%
164th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 68.73
223rd

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 0.99
55th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
33rd
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