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Fresno State

Model Score Rank
Adj EM-8.60249
Elo1354.44329
RPI0.409328
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.463
Rank: 11 of 11 in MWC, 350 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 5 of 11 in MWC, 212 of 364 in D1
350th

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.165
Rank: 9 of 11 in MWC, 230 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 6 of 11 in MWC, 211 of 364 in D1
230th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.246
Rank: 10 of 11 in MWC, 319 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 2 of 11 in MWC, 6 of 364 in D1
319th

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.371
Rank: 5 of 11 in MWC, 77 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 4 of 11 in MWC, 58 of 364 in D1
77th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.542
Rank: 10 of 11 in MWC, 322 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 2 of 11 in MWC, 78 of 364 in D1
322nd

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.168
Rank: 5 of 11 in MWC, 118 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 8 of 11 in MWC, 252 of 364 in D1
118th

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.672
Rank: 11 of 11 in MWC, 352 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 11 of 11 in MWC, 349 of 364 in D1
352nd

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.240
Rank: 1 of 11 in MWC, 11 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 4 of 11 in MWC, 167 of 364 in D1
11th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 99.00
280th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 33.0%
353rd

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 81.4%
282nd

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 40.6%
351st

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 64.4%
95th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.9%
306th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 52.4%
139th

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 45.3%
352nd

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 35.6%
270th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.1%
312th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 29.0%
294th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 31.4%
308th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 37.1%
77th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 20.6%
131st

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 29.7%
75th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 69.4%
264th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 44.2%
340th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.1%
167th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 5.6%
327th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.9%
105th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 16.5%
230th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 24.6%
319th

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 74.09
20th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 0.96
345th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.46
350th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 107.60
200th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 41.1%
353rd

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 88.6%
346th

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 46.7%
311th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 56.5%
52nd

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.0%
291st

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 50.0%
150th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 55.5%
334th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 43.5%
313th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 13.1%
336th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 38.6%
346th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 33.8%
192nd

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 24.0%
11th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 14.9%
12th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 20.7%
13th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 70.8%
125th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 57.9%
316th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.3%
119th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.4%
199th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.2%
28th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 16.8%
118th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 67.2%
352nd

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 73.26
26th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.10
318th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
322nd
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