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Montana State

Model Score Rank
Adj EM-1.65172
Elo1483.32207
RPI0.461246
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.532
Rank: 3 of 10 in BSC, 91 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 10 in BSC, 120 of 364 in D1
91st

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.138
Rank: 1 of 10 in BSC, 38 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 8 of 10 in BSC, 206 of 364 in D1
38th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.208
Rank: 10 of 10 in BSC, 353 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 5 of 10 in BSC, 252 of 364 in D1
353rd

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.319
Rank: 8 of 10 in BSC, 228 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 5 of 10 in BSC, 219 of 364 in D1
228th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.488
Rank: 1 of 10 in BSC, 76 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 1 of 10 in BSC, 58 of 364 in D1
76th

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.142
Rank: 10 of 10 in BSC, 312 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 9 of 10 in BSC, 221 of 364 in D1
312th

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.728
Rank: 6 of 10 in BSC, 175 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 9 of 10 in BSC, 288 of 364 in D1
175th

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.323
Rank: 1 of 10 in BSC, 151 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 3 of 10 in BSC, 52 of 364 in D1
151st

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 104.84
178th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 37.7%
162nd

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 82.5%
243rd

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 45.8%
119th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 56.9%
284th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.5%
222nd

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 46.8%
293rd

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 54.6%
76th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 43.1%
81st

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 12.2%
101st

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 35.7%
96th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 33.7%
192nd

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 31.9%
228th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 18.5%
246th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.5%
259th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 71.2%
207th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 51.8%
186th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 8.1%
59th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 3.3%
9th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.5%
184th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 13.8%
38th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 20.8%
353rd

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 67.46
294th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.06
165th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.53
91st

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 106.49
188th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 37.7%
231st

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 85.6%
283rd

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 44.0%
162nd

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 67.9%
352nd

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 29.5%
349th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 58.2%
357th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 50.5%
153rd

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 32.1%
13th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 8.2%
7th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.4%
22nd

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 30.2%
17th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 32.3%
151st

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 20.8%
244th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.0%
171st

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 75.1%
337th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 46.0%
44th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.0%
223rd

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 5.3%
112th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.6%
144th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 14.2%
312th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 72.8%
175th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 67.93
267th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.04
175th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
76th
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