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Sacramento St

Model Score Rank
Adj EM-18.84336
Elo1284.05358
RPI0.368357
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.502
Rank: 9 of 10 in BSC, 245 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 4 of 10 in BSC, 148 of 364 in D1
245th

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.193
Rank: 10 of 10 in BSC, 349 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 2 of 10 in BSC, 85 of 364 in D1
349th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.316
Rank: 4 of 10 in BSC, 127 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 10 of 10 in BSC, 356 of 364 in D1
127th

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.321
Rank: 7 of 10 in BSC, 216 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 9 of 10 in BSC, 321 of 364 in D1
216th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.550
Rank: 10 of 10 in BSC, 345 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 10 of 10 in BSC, 332 of 364 in D1
345th

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.161
Rank: 4 of 10 in BSC, 165 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 8 of 10 in BSC, 188 of 364 in D1
165th

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.759
Rank: 3 of 10 in BSC, 40 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 5 of 10 in BSC, 68 of 364 in D1
40th

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.402
Rank: 9 of 10 in BSC, 328 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 5 of 10 in BSC, 128 of 364 in D1
328th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 92.97
347th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 34.5%
328th

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 81.0%
295th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 42.8%
289th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 54.7%
310th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 22.5%
344th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 44.4%
332nd

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 51.3%
201st

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 45.3%
55th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 12.0%
117th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 36.6%
82nd

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 32.7%
242nd

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 32.1%
216th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 17.3%
293rd

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.5%
261st

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 67.3%
315th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 54.9%
106th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.8%
325th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.4%
158th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.6%
119th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 19.3%
349th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 31.6%
127th

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 66.92
311th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 0.98
326th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.50
245th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 111.81
287th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 37.3%
213th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 79.7%
41st

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 46.7%
306th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 54.2%
21st

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.8%
63rd

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 43.0%
9th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 55.2%
325th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 45.8%
344th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 13.5%
347th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 36.7%
319th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 36.0%
313th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 40.2%
328th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 22.3%
313th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 31.0%
314th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 72.2%
214th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 59.2%
335th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 8.5%
274th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.0%
248th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.5%
355th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 16.1%
165th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 75.9%
40th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 66.65
321st

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.10
321st

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.6%
345th
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