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Columbia

Model Score Rank
Adj EM-11.70280
Elo1383.31315
RPI0.439290
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.535
Rank: 3 of 8 in IVY, 81 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 8 of 8 in IVY, 345 of 364 in D1
81st

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.146
Rank: 3 of 8 in IVY, 78 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 2 of 8 in IVY, 59 of 364 in D1
78th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.293
Rank: 2 of 8 in IVY, 186 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 8 of 8 in IVY, 359 of 364 in D1
186th

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.297
Rank: 3 of 8 in IVY, 295 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 1 of 8 in IVY, 169 of 364 in D1
295th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.568
Rank: 8 of 8 in IVY, 358 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 8 of 8 in IVY, 342 of 364 in D1
358th

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.155
Rank: 3 of 8 in IVY, 221 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 7 of 8 in IVY, 329 of 364 in D1
221st

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.756
Rank: 4 of 8 in IVY, 50 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 1 of 8 in IVY, 2 of 364 in D1
50th

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.262
Rank: 4 of 8 in IVY, 25 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 4 of 8 in IVY, 143 of 364 in D1
25th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 103.83
200th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 39.7%
60th

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 85.0%
124th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 46.8%
67th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 60.3%
199th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.3%
73rd

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 51.2%
174th

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 55.5%
44th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 39.7%
166th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 11.4%
151st

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 33.8%
143rd

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 33.6%
197th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 29.7%
295th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 18.1%
265th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.5%
300th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 72.7%
151st

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 60.6%
26th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 7.9%
37th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.7%
224th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 20.5%
339th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 14.6%
78th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 29.3%
186th

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 72.19
63rd

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.09
100th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.53
81st

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 115.53
340th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 41.0%
352nd

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 85.2%
263rd

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 48.5%
351st

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 58.2%
83rd

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.0%
247th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 49.5%
127th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 54.7%
315th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 41.8%
282nd

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 14.0%
358th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 35.8%
299th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 38.2%
356th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 26.2%
25th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 15.6%
19th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.4%
17th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 71.9%
195th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 64.1%
362nd

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.1%
135th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 2.9%
343rd

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.7%
36th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 15.5%
221st

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 75.6%
50th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 72.17
59th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.12
334th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.6%
358th
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