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Indiana

Model Score Rank
Adj EM16.5256
Elo1610.4565
RPI0.57648
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.516
Rank: 13 of 18 in B1G, 169 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 17 of 18 in B1G, 313 of 364 in D1
169th

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.159
Rank: 14 of 18 in B1G, 184 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 3 of 18 in B1G, 81 of 364 in D1
184th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.287
Rank: 7 of 18 in B1G, 200 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 4 of 18 in B1G, 51 of 364 in D1
200th

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.338
Rank: 12 of 18 in B1G, 172 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 14 of 18 in B1G, 259 of 364 in D1
172nd

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.501
Rank: 8 of 18 in B1G, 131 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 10 of 18 in B1G, 154 of 364 in D1
131st

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.152
Rank: 13 of 18 in B1G, 240 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 1 of 18 in B1G, 37 of 364 in D1
240th

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.746
Rank: 4 of 18 in B1G, 89 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 18 in B1G, 77 of 364 in D1
89th

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.300
Rank: 9 of 18 in B1G, 92 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 14 of 18 in B1G, 212 of 364 in D1
92nd

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 112.27
74th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 38.4%
114th

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 83.9%
175th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 46.2%
100th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 66.8%
42nd

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 29.5%
30th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 55.9%
53rd

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 52.9%
123rd

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 33.2%
323rd

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.0%
321st

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.0%
313th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 32.7%
243rd

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 33.8%
172nd

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 19.5%
189th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.7%
171st

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 69.5%
261st

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 58.2%
49th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.5%
207th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.6%
199th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.3%
76th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 15.9%
184th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 28.7%
200th

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 70.96
123rd

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.05
192nd

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.52
169th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 95.75
38th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 36.7%
166th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 84.5%
227th

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 43.7%
145th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 61.3%
195th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.9%
183rd

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 51.5%
200th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 50.0%
134th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 38.7%
170th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.8%
168th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 33.0%
200th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 32.6%
120th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 30.0%
92nd

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 18.2%
100th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.0%
101st

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 71.7%
175th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 51.9%
187th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 8.3%
292nd

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.7%
170th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.5%
131st

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 15.2%
240th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 74.6%
89th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 70.40
141st

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.02
122nd

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
131st
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