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UNLV

Model Score Rank
Adj EM8.7490
Elo1578.2091
RPI0.526119
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.499
Rank: 10 of 11 in MWC, 260 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 9 of 11 in MWC, 334 of 364 in D1
260th

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.148
Rank: 3 of 11 in MWC, 95 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 5 of 11 in MWC, 210 of 364 in D1
95th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.250
Rank: 9 of 11 in MWC, 306 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 5 of 11 in MWC, 99 of 364 in D1
306th

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.367
Rank: 6 of 11 in MWC, 83 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 1 of 11 in MWC, 12 of 364 in D1
83rd

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.497
Rank: 4 of 11 in MWC, 112 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 11 in MWC, 79 of 364 in D1
112th

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.166
Rank: 6 of 11 in MWC, 130 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 10 of 11 in MWC, 299 of 364 in D1
130th

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.728
Rank: 8 of 11 in MWC, 179 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 1 of 11 in MWC, 70 of 364 in D1
179th

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.325
Rank: 4 of 11 in MWC, 155 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 3 of 11 in MWC, 116 of 364 in D1
155th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 108.18
118th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 36.6%
237th

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 83.4%
206th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 44.1%
216th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 65.3%
71st

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.0%
122nd

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 54.6%
84th

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 49.5%
270th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 34.7%
294th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.6%
296th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.8%
300th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 33.4%
210th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 36.7%
83rd

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.4%
94th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 29.8%
74th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 70.3%
241st

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 49.7%
241st

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 8.3%
77th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.7%
214th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 26.9%
23rd

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 14.8%
95th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 25.0%
306th

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 66.57
325th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.04
216th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.50
260th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 99.44
76th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 35.6%
100th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 83.9%
198th

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 42.7%
86th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 56.6%
54th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.0%
74th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 47.5%
67th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 50.6%
158th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 43.4%
311th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 11.6%
255th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 36.5%
316th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 31.8%
77th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 32.5%
155th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 19.1%
146th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 26.7%
161st

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 71.7%
171st

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 61.4%
352nd

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.8%
164th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 5.5%
95th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.8%
152nd

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 16.6%
130th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 72.8%
179th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 66.93
312th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.02
110th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
112th
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