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American

Model Score Rank
Adj EM-7.73240
Elo1511.82164
RPI0.506158
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.524
Rank: 4 of 10 in PAT, 119 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 2 of 10 in PAT, 21 of 364 in D1
119th

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.156
Rank: 4 of 10 in PAT, 158 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 6 of 10 in PAT, 253 of 364 in D1
158th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.228
Rank: 8 of 10 in PAT, 340 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 8 of 10 in PAT, 229 of 364 in D1
340th

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.305
Rank: 6 of 10 in PAT, 279 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 10 of 10 in PAT, 353 of 364 in D1
279th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.516
Rank: 4 of 10 in PAT, 222 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 5 of 10 in PAT, 225 of 364 in D1
222nd

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.171
Rank: 1 of 10 in PAT, 104 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 2 of 10 in PAT, 27 of 364 in D1
104th

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.743
Rank: 8 of 10 in PAT, 106 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 4 of 10 in PAT, 76 of 364 in D1
106th

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.349
Rank: 9 of 10 in PAT, 218 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 1 of 10 in PAT, 12 of 364 in D1
218th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 101.70
230th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 36.8%
222nd

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 83.0%
220th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 44.5%
191st

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 54.7%
311th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.7%
318th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 45.3%
321st

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 52.4%
149th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 45.3%
54th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 13.1%
55th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 37.7%
64th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 35.2%
108th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 30.5%
279th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 18.6%
244th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.6%
299th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 74.3%
97th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 52.1%
174th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.0%
158th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.3%
125th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.0%
152nd

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 15.6%
158th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 22.8%
340th

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 65.25
355th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.05
191st

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.52
119th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 109.43
239th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 37.1%
195th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 81.1%
74th

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 45.8%
265th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 64.8%
309th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.5%
275th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 52.5%
234th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 52.4%
248th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 35.2%
56th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.6%
49th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.6%
43rd

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 33.2%
154th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 34.9%
218th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 19.4%
163rd

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.7%
202nd

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 69.1%
42nd

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 50.6%
152nd

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.0%
144th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 2.8%
351st

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.2%
338th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 17.1%
104th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 74.3%
106th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 65.75
349th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.03
142nd

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
222nd
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