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Missouri State

Model Score Rank
Adj EM-5.73217
Elo1400.43296
RPI0.428306
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.516
Rank: 9 of 12 in MVC, 162 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 7 of 12 in MVC, 261 of 364 in D1
162nd

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.192
Rank: 12 of 12 in MVC, 347 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 10 of 12 in MVC, 277 of 364 in D1
347th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.297
Rank: 4 of 12 in MVC, 174 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 12 in MVC, 130 of 364 in D1
174th

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.345
Rank: 7 of 12 in MVC, 150 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 10 of 12 in MVC, 277 of 364 in D1
150th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.541
Rank: 12 of 12 in MVC, 320 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 11 of 12 in MVC, 229 of 364 in D1
320th

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.182
Rank: 2 of 12 in MVC, 62 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 2 of 12 in MVC, 138 of 364 in D1
62nd

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.744
Rank: 7 of 12 in MVC, 96 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 12 in MVC, 128 of 364 in D1
96th

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.384
Rank: 12 of 12 in MVC, 299 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 4 of 12 in MVC, 98 of 364 in D1
299th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 99.87
255th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 36.0%
273rd

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 80.9%
301st

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 44.9%
170th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 62.8%
137th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.1%
248th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 50.7%
186th

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 49.9%
259th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 37.2%
228th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.9%
197th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 30.2%
249th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 35.7%
82nd

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 34.5%
150th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 17.8%
273rd

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.3%
185th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 63.5%
358th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 50.5%
222nd

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.7%
239th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 6.1%
347th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.2%
139th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 19.2%
347th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 29.7%
174th

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 67.77
284th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.01
297th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.52
162nd

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 105.61
168th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 37.0%
190th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 78.5%
26th

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 47.1%
323rd

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 60.3%
154th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 26.0%
189th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 47.3%
61st

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 55.2%
326th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 39.7%
211th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 11.1%
192nd

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 31.2%
133rd

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 35.1%
268th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 38.4%
299th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.0%
252nd

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 29.5%
265th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 69.4%
57th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 54.0%
244th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.7%
91st

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 3.8%
282nd

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.1%
336th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 18.2%
62nd

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 74.4%
96th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 67.77
277th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.06
232nd

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
320th
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