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Coppin State

Model Score Rank
Adj EM-29.57362
Elo1266.27360
RPI0.37355
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.447
Rank: 8 of 8 in MEAC, 362 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 1 of 8 in MEAC, 6 of 364 in D1
362nd

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.198
Rank: 8 of 8 in MEAC, 357 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 2 of 8 in MEAC, 197 of 364 in D1
357th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.257
Rank: 8 of 8 in MEAC, 297 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 7 of 8 in MEAC, 210 of 364 in D1
297th

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.375
Rank: 4 of 8 in MEAC, 66 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 7 of 8 in MEAC, 301 of 364 in D1
66th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.555
Rank: 8 of 8 in MEAC, 351 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 3 of 8 in MEAC, 11 of 364 in D1
351st

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.193
Rank: 3 of 8 in MEAC, 28 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 2 of 8 in MEAC, 58 of 364 in D1
28th

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.667
Rank: 6 of 8 in MEAC, 354 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 2 of 8 in MEAC, 129 of 364 in D1
354th

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.381
Rank: 2 of 8 in MEAC, 295 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 3 of 8 in MEAC, 73 of 364 in D1
295th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 84.03
363rd

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 30.7%
363rd

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 77.5%
360th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 39.9%
357th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 67.8%
31st

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.4%
325th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 52.6%
135th

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 44.7%
356th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 32.2%
334th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 7.3%
355th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.9%
351st

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 29.4%
352nd

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 37.5%
66th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 19.3%
204th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.4%
136th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 68.0%
303rd

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 51.5%
191st

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.7%
318th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 6.7%
363rd

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.1%
216th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 19.8%
357th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 25.7%
297th

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 70.74
136th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 0.88
363rd

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.45
362nd

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 113.60
313th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 38.8%
296th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 80.3%
47th

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 48.4%
350th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 60.8%
171st

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.4%
268th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 48.9%
109th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 57.2%
354th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 39.2%
194th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 11.4%
232nd

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 31.4%
144th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 36.1%
318th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 38.1%
295th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.5%
276th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 29.9%
280th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 72.4%
219th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 57.4%
306th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 11.2%
60th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 2.6%
357th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.1%
228th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 19.3%
28th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 66.7%
354th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 69.78
179th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.11
326th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.6%
351st
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