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Wagner

Model Score Rank
Adj EM-20.96348
Elo1412.64280
RPI0.413326
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.447
Rank: 8 of 9 in NEC, 361 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 7 of 9 in NEC, 193 of 364 in D1
361st

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.179
Rank: 7 of 9 in NEC, 312 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 6 of 9 in NEC, 301 of 364 in D1
312th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.305
Rank: 3 of 9 in NEC, 151 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 9 in NEC, 60 of 364 in D1
151st

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.299
Rank: 5 of 9 in NEC, 289 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 5 of 9 in NEC, 155 of 364 in D1
289th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.507
Rank: 5 of 9 in NEC, 168 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 4 of 9 in NEC, 90 of 364 in D1
168th

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.172
Rank: 3 of 9 in NEC, 99 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 6 of 9 in NEC, 152 of 364 in D1
99th

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.779
Rank: 1 of 9 in NEC, 8 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 5 of 9 in NEC, 112 of 364 in D1
8th

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.399
Rank: 8 of 9 in NEC, 321 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 6 of 9 in NEC, 102 of 364 in D1
321st

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 89.71
359th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 33.0%
354th

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 86.0%
88th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 38.7%
363rd

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 62.6%
142nd

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 22.8%
340th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 54.0%
101st

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 42.6%
364th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 37.4%
223rd

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.2%
249th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 32.0%
201st

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 32.4%
258th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 29.9%
289th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 17.5%
286th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.7%
292nd

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 68.1%
294th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 54.9%
105th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.6%
308th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 5.4%
305th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.4%
194th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 17.9%
312th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 30.5%
151st

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 62.41
361st

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 0.94
357th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.45
361st

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 110.66
264th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 33.8%
32nd

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 78.2%
21st

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 43.4%
126th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 57.0%
59th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 22.5%
23rd

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 44.5%
20th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 50.8%
172nd

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 43.0%
306th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 11.4%
227th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 33.7%
232nd

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 33.2%
153rd

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 39.9%
321st

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 22.0%
294th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 30.3%
295th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 71.6%
167th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 55.9%
286th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.2%
128th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 2.3%
363rd

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.1%
352nd

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 17.2%
99th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 77.9%
8th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 61.99
363rd

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.01
84th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
168th
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