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Cal Poly

Model Score Rank
Adj EM-4.15201
Elo1414.22278
RPI0.493184
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.553
Rank: 3 of 11 in BWC, 34 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 1 of 11 in BWC, 2 of 364 in D1
34th

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.198
Rank: 10 of 11 in BWC, 356 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 1 of 11 in BWC, 32 of 364 in D1
356th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.275
Rank: 10 of 11 in BWC, 245 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 3 of 11 in BWC, 144 of 364 in D1
245th

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.270
Rank: 11 of 11 in BWC, 334 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 7 of 11 in BWC, 303 of 364 in D1
334th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.533
Rank: 8 of 11 in BWC, 301 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 6 of 11 in BWC, 239 of 364 in D1
301st

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.178
Rank: 5 of 11 in BWC, 75 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 1 of 11 in BWC, 57 of 364 in D1
75th

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.679
Rank: 11 of 11 in BWC, 344 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 2 of 11 in BWC, 42 of 364 in D1
344th

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.325
Rank: 3 of 11 in BWC, 156 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 7 of 11 in BWC, 149 of 364 in D1
156th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 106.91
138th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 37.2%
192nd

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 80.8%
303rd

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 46.1%
103rd

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 48.9%
361st

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 22.3%
350th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 39.6%
363rd

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 56.0%
36th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 51.1%
4th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 14.9%
11th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 41.2%
11th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 36.2%
60th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 27.0%
334th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 16.4%
327th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.3%
350th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 76.3%
41st

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 53.9%
123rd

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 11.3%
351st

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 3.9%
58th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.4%
315th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 19.8%
356th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 27.5%
245th

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 77.51
2nd

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.06
181st

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.55
34th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 111.06
271st

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 38.7%
293rd

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 83.7%
179th

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 46.4%
289th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 59.9%
137th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.2%
253rd

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 50.0%
149th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 54.8%
316th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 40.1%
228th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 11.6%
253rd

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 33.6%
226th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 34.9%
259th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 32.5%
156th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 20.3%
218th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 26.8%
165th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 76.0%
351st

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 50.1%
137th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.3%
118th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 2.7%
353rd

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.9%
162nd

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 17.8%
75th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 67.9%
344th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 76.34
3rd

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.09
305th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
301st
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