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Utah Valley

Model Score Rank
Adj EM3.02122
Elo1636.6757
RPI0.54681
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.520
Rank: 2 of 9 in WAC, 144 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 1 of 9 in WAC, 152 of 364 in D1
144th

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.163
Rank: 2 of 9 in WAC, 212 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 9 of 9 in WAC, 330 of 364 in D1
212th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.315
Rank: 6 of 9 in WAC, 129 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 4 of 9 in WAC, 211 of 364 in D1
129th

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.428
Rank: 4 of 9 in WAC, 18 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 1 of 9 in WAC, 5 of 364 in D1
18th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.474
Rank: 1 of 9 in WAC, 34 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 6 of 9 in WAC, 122 of 364 in D1
34th

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.158
Rank: 7 of 9 in WAC, 188 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 7 of 9 in WAC, 253 of 364 in D1
188th

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.767
Rank: 1 of 9 in WAC, 24 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 6 of 9 in WAC, 173 of 364 in D1
24th

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.326
Rank: 1 of 9 in WAC, 159 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 5 of 9 in WAC, 254 of 364 in D1
159th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 104.26
190th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 37.7%
158th

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 80.8%
304th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 46.7%
71st

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 68.5%
24th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 29.2%
38th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 55.3%
66th

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 53.0%
121st

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 31.5%
341st

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 8.5%
335th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.5%
347th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 32.3%
261st

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 42.8%
18th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.0%
38th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 33.4%
17th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 69.1%
271st

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 57.4%
59th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.4%
202nd

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 5.1%
274th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.3%
16th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 16.3%
212th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 31.5%
129th

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 71.00
122nd

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.07
144th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.52
144th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 101.24
92nd

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 34.7%
57th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 83.0%
150th

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 41.8%
53rd

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 66.6%
340th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.2%
139th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 55.2%
322nd

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 46.1%
13th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 33.4%
25th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.4%
40th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.8%
31st

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 32.6%
124th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 32.6%
159th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 18.6%
118th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 26.2%
139th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 70.2%
99th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 50.0%
132nd

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.2%
205th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 7.8%
9th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.6%
139th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 15.8%
188th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 76.7%
24th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 70.75
120th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 0.97
26th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
34th
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