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Texas State

Model Score Rank
Adj EM-3.49195
Elo1481.03210
RPI0.477216
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.515
Rank: 3 of 14 in SBC, 171 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 6 of 14 in SBC, 183 of 364 in D1
171st

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.163
Rank: 11 of 14 in SBC, 210 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 7 of 14 in SBC, 109 of 364 in D1
210th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.363
Rank: 2 of 14 in SBC, 31 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 2 of 14 in SBC, 32 of 364 in D1
31st

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.384
Rank: 2 of 14 in SBC, 46 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 8 of 14 in SBC, 204 of 364 in D1
46th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.503
Rank: 9 of 14 in SBC, 147 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 3 of 14 in SBC, 27 of 364 in D1
147th

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.153
Rank: 7 of 14 in SBC, 234 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 8 of 14 in SBC, 238 of 364 in D1
234th

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.709
Rank: 7 of 14 in SBC, 263 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 11 of 14 in SBC, 333 of 364 in D1
263rd

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.426
Rank: 12 of 14 in SBC, 348 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 7 of 14 in SBC, 198 of 364 in D1
348th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 107.17
136th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 38.7%
93rd

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 83.6%
190th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 46.5%
81st

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 72.3%
5th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 30.2%
16th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 60.3%
10th

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 50.3%
242nd

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 27.7%
360th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 8.5%
337th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.3%
358th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 36.5%
49th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 38.4%
46th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.0%
40th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 30.4%
59th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 75.7%
57th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 53.3%
139th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.0%
262nd

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 5.6%
328th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.3%
203rd

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 16.3%
210th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 36.3%
31st

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 69.89
185th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.09
98th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.52
171st

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 110.65
263rd

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 35.7%
106th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 82.4%
126th

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 43.7%
144th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 63.8%
273rd

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.8%
119th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 52.3%
229th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 47.7%
51st

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 36.2%
92nd

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.9%
173rd

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 30.1%
83rd

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 37.0%
336th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 42.6%
348th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.8%
353rd

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 34.4%
357th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 71.7%
180th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 50.3%
145th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.9%
151st

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 5.8%
75th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 26.6%
319th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 15.3%
234th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 70.9%
263rd

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 69.69
185th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.07
254th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
147th
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